Snomecoming

Tomorrow is homecoming for MSU and the Cats will take on Weber State. The Wildcats are coming off of a 47-28 upset of the other Montana school last weekend in Ogden. The Wildcats are 2-0 in conference play and ranked 22nd in the FCS coaches poll. So needless to say, this is a crucial game for MSU.

Being that it is early October and it is homecoming, we should have a beautiful, crisp, autumn day for the game right? NO. Forecasts are calling for a high of 29F with up to 4 inches of snow on the ground at kickoff with another 1-4 inches possible during the game.

Though I have always thought it was a stupid tradition, I feel bad for the homecoming royalty candidates that will have to parade around in tuxes and gowns in 20-degree weather. Luckily, MSU installed FieldTurf during the off season, so field conditions shouldn't be an issue as long as proper snow removal precautions have been undertaken. However, cold weather always contributes to increased injury potential, and MSU can't handle any more injuries. Last week in Pocatello, the sideline looked like a medical unit from the Civil War. Flu and sprains, and bruises. No blood that I saw however.

On paper, this should be one of those games where both teams score in the forties. Both teams have dynamic offenses and playmakers that are capable of running up the score. However, the weather (wind expected in addition to the cold) will be the inhibiting force and should keep the ball on the ground. That will make for interesting football, because Weber features the number one running back in the league, Trevyn Smith, who is averaging 98 yards per game on the ground. MSU's Demetrius Crawford is number two in the league at just under 87 yards per game.

My prediction:
Games that are greatly affected by weather, as this one should be, come down to three factors: turnovers, penalties, and field position. MSU is negative right now in turnover margin (-0.8) and has at times played a bit loose with the football. Avoiding turnovers will be key, because point scoring opportunities will be few and far between. Weber is one of four teams in the league with a positive turnover margin (+0.6). Another factor that affects these "weather games" is penalties. MSU and Weber are number one and number two in the league respectively in fewest penalty yards. Field position is the other key. Weber has the highest punt return and kickoff return averages in the Big Sky Conference. MSU is number four in both categories.

When you look at my three weather factors above, Weber holds a slight advantage, 2 to 1. However, home field and home crowd always affect the outcome of a game. MSU is expecting another sellout-standing room only crowd which will be rabid with excitement over the importance of the game and the fact that it is homecoming. Look for both teams to have big days on the ground, with MSU being propelled by its crowd to a 20-17 win.

But more importantly, should I wear? It will be cold, so please vote in the poll in the upper left margin and help me decide how to dress for homecoming.

Bring your hot chocolate!!! (With or without schnaaps.)